Election 2016: Electoral College Will Be CLOSE!

Take a look at the Real Clear Politics map below. It shows 272 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 266 for Donald Trump. If either New Hampshire or Colorado flip from blue to red, Trump wins. Those are the small states. If Trump flips a "Bigly" or even "Yuge" state like Pennsylvania or Michigan, it will likely signal a historic shift in the electorate. 


Early Voting
Early voting is looking pretty good for Trump. 

Florida 
2016: Democrats lead Republicans by 90,000 votes or 1.4% of the 6.5 million in-person early and mail-in absentee ballots
2012: Democrats led Republicans by 177,000 or 3.7%

The most recent poll in Florida, which was conducted by Trafalgar, had Trump ahead by 4%. This took the RCP average to 0.2% in Trump's favor. 

Pennsylvania
There is no early voting in Pennsylvania. However, the most recent poll from the state had Trump ahead by 1%. That poll was also conducted by Trafalgar

New Hampshire
In the wee hours of the morning, Trump pulled ahead after losing the first vote of Election Day in Dixville Notch.

Most of the last polls were trending in Trump's direction until a random, outlier poll from WMUR/UNH. The poll had Clinton ahead by 11 points! This shifted the RCP average to Clinton, if not for this it would have remained in Trump's column.










Colorado
Across the battleground state of Colorado, Republicans are ahead as of Election Day morning. They have turned in 771,745 ballots, while Democrats are at 753,052. A total of 656,882 of those 2,215,258 ballots tallied in Colorado are unaffiliated voters.

Nevada
Democrats have an edge of 46,000 votes, or 6%. That's roughly the same as Obama's 48,000-vote lead after early voting in 2012 -- which grew when more Democrats than Republicans turned out on Election Day. In 2012, Democrats led by 48,277 or 6.8 points. 

A couple recent polls show Hillary with a 1 or 2% lead. Nevertheless, Trump maintains at 0.8% lead in the RCP average. 

Who does the most accurate poll of 2012 say is ahead?
First off, which poll was the most accurate of 2012? Check out the chart below from Nate Silver's 538 website:



As you can see from the above chart, IBD/TIPP was the closest when it came to predicting the final popular vote. IBD stands for Investor's Business Daily. The IBD/TIPP poll for a four-way race has Trump leading by 2%. 

What happens if there's a tie?
All in all, it's looking pretty good for Trump. There exists the possibility, however, that the electoral college could gives us a 269-269 tie. Then what happens? 

A electoral college tie would go to the House of Representatives to select the President, while the Senate would select the Vice President. A tie could result in a split-ticket! 

Also, it's not a simple vote in the House. Each state gets a vote. A majority of states (26) is needed to win. In the Senate, 51 votes would be needed. Would Trump win either way? Yes, probably so. Even in the map at the top of this post, Trump would carry a majority of states without a majority in the Electoral College. 

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