2018 House Election Map: How's that Blue Wave Coming?

Are you wondering whether a blue wave is truly coming this election cycle? The Republicans are likely to gain a couple seats in the Senate, but what about the House of Representatives? 

It's that time in the election cycle when I get a little nerdy with polling numbers. There are lots of places online that will give you polling numbers and the breakdown: RealClearPolitics, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com, and 270towin.com

It's tough, though, to find one that gives you the House race without labeling all the close races as "toss-ups". 

I've put together the following charts to give you the House race without tossups. Enjoy! 



Disclaimer: I'm no polling expert, but I am pretty nerdy when it comes to watching the numbers. 

Here's how it stands. Democrats have about 206 "safe" house seats. Republicans have about 190. That leaves 39 tossup elections, per RCP.


Now, let's break down the toss-ups. Here is the polling data for each House district considered a toss-up. The "R+10" or "D+1" number is the RCP average. "NP" means no polling has been conducted in that district. 


Districts in red were previously a Republican-held district. Districts in blue were previously held by a Democrat. You can see that there are a lot more Republican districts up for grabs this election cycle. 

Notice there's only ONE Democrat seat among the toss-ups in which the Democrat is polling more than one point ahead. Whoa. 

Here's my tabulation of the above data: 


I'll get to why I separate the districts in which the Democrats are just one point up ("JUST +1") in a moment. 

Based on the above, specifically the yellow "D vs. R" column, Democrats would take the House 220.5 seats to 214.5 seats. 

Where's that half seat coming from? The half seat comes from dividing the 15 districts without polling evenly between Democrats and Republicans. This assumption probably favors the Democrats as most of the seats in question were formerly Republican seats and so favor a Republican candidate, but anyway ... 

But wait! Poll data is typically normalized to favor the Democrats. Based on the last presidential election, that bias doesn't pan out. To un-bias the polls, I would count the districts in which Democats are only ahead by one point as actually tipping Republican. 

So, what's the final result? The last column. If you count the Democrat "just +1" seats for the Republicans, that flips the numbers. Republicans retain the majority 220.5 to 214.5. 

There's my two cents for you. Take it for what it's worth!

Please remember to comment and share. God bless America!

No comments: